T O P

Unification by Economic Power, Taiwan is already showing signs of major economic cracks. Total Debt near 900% of GDP, Household Debt near 100% of GDP. While still given relatively high ratings, Taiwan's economic indices are moving very close to that of South Korea, which is said to have debt crisis

Unification by Economic Power, Taiwan is already showing signs of major economic cracks. Total Debt near 900% of GDP, Household Debt near 100% of GDP. While still given relatively high ratings, Taiwan's economic indices are moving very close to that of South Korea, which is said to have debt crisis

Keesaten

Parenti had a lecture mentioning landlords waaaaaay back in the Roman Empire ignoring safety standards and cramming in as many residents as possible.


Altruistic_Astronaut

Do you have any sources or graphs to help some of us with visual interpretation of the numbers? All I know is economic collapse of Taiwan I'd only good for the US and not for China. You'll see American companies going in to take up shares of a company while the American Empire creates extremist who may turn violent.


PerseusCommunist

Economic Collapse of Taiwan means shopping sprees for Western corporations. Japan and South Korea lost a lot of assets to the West in the 1990s because of the economic collapses. God know how much land that Western billionaires own in Japan or the public shares of Korean Chaebols.


delorisdeloris

Then just gotta make sure it’s a shopping spree for Chinese corporations


PerseusCommunist

Depend on what assets. The West is going to steal high end assets like semiconductors, strategic lands, patents and more. Chinese and ASEAN corporations gonna get some meager scraps. High end assets are mostly protected by the governments who are always under control of the US. The Western corporations are going to get VIP treatments.


jorvis_nonof

They already made laws to make it difficult to impossible for Chinese corporations to buy anything of real value in Taiwan.


skyanvil

[https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/taiwan/total-debt--of-gdp](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/taiwan/total-debt--of-gdp) Taiwan's total debt to GDP ratio: 865.4% in 2019. This number has steadily increased over the years, in 2000 it was below 600%. PRC's total debt to GDP ratio is around 220% today. ​ [https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/japan/total-debt--of-gdp](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/japan/total-debt--of-gdp) Japan's number is much much worse. It's now at 1,306%!


lan69

While Taiwan does show signs of stress, What would an economic war entail? Cutting Taiwan off (economically/diplomatically) would let US fully swoop in with aid. I don’t think it’s a wise choice. The landlord anecdote isn’t enough to bring about a collapse and you yourself said it’s not a prediction of Taiwan’s collapse. So I’m not sure where you’re going with this. I’ve been hearing how Taiwan will be reunified on its own. Honestly though I think China needs to do a bit of work too. Basically more influence operations on Taiwan. Pro-reunification needs to be at least a quarter of population sentiment before realistic attempts to take the island.


skyanvil

>The landlord anecdote isn’t enough to bring about a collapse and you yourself said it’s not a prediction of Taiwan’s collapse. So I’m not sure where you’re going with this. My point is, I think if Taiwan try to exert some economic warfare against mainland China (or help US do so, via semiconductor industry, etc.), it will further strain Taiwan's economy. While this may not lead to economic collapse, Taiwan is ripe for internal political collapse, which increases a chance of a indirect reunification. Whatif Matsu island or Penghu decide to break away and join mainland? I don't think Taiwan will have much influence or muscle left to do anything. Once such a political collapse starts, i.e. Taiwan DPP's authority collapses, nothing can help it. I'm not saying KMT can take over, in fact, it could be a total ROC political collapse.


jorvis_nonof

What would "internal political collapse" look like? Democracies don't really suffer political collapse. If the DPP carries out exceedingly idiotic policies, they just lose to the KMT or some other new party. When they in turn cannot solve the problems, the DPP will be put back in power. Problems don't need to be fixed because there is another election around the corner to release the pressure. > Whatif Matsu island or Penghu decide to break away and join mainland? Whichever party in power in Taiwan will get blamed and it will hurt them in the next election. That's it. > I don't think Taiwan will have much influence or muscle left to do anything. They don't need to. They just need to embarrass the other party more. > I'm not saying KMT can take over, in fact, it could be a total ROC political collapse. What does that look like? Why would the ROC collapse instead of just the other party winning off the back of the other party's embarrassment?


skyanvil

>What would "internal political collapse" look like? > >Democracies don't really suffer political collapse. If the DPP carries out exceedingly idiotic policies, they just lose to the KMT or some other new party. When they in turn cannot solve the problems, the DPP will be put back in power. Problems don't need to be fixed because there is another election around the corner to release the pressure. not quite true, Aristotle predicted that Democracy would inevitably suffer political collapse, [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State\_collapse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_collapse) >For Aristotle (384–322 BC), the inherent dangers of democracy were, first, that conflict between the aristocracy and the poor was inevitable; and second, that it would usher in **"mischief and corruption"**. **Both processes would lead to collapse** unless independent controls and separation of powers were enforced. Indeed, Hamilton in the Federalist Paper reflected upon the same issue, and his solution was to implement the "Federation" of States, so that while individual (small) states may suffer in collapse, that would be buffered by the central Federal government (in essence be supported by non-collapsed states temporarily). It's not just economic aid, but also man power and shared resources. You can see this in Puerto Rico, which is basically bankrupt because it's not a "State", so it receives no support from US federal government. Puerto Rico can limp along without full economic collapse, but it's basically politically useless. It can't resist anything. It can't do much at all. In Taiwan's case, it will be simply become limping along like a Zombie state. US won't give it much aid, until eventually some civil chaos happens.


East-Deal1439

Economic embargo from mainland China will see ROC economy collapse in months. No way USA and EU can replace PRC as a trading partner. Pineapples is just the beginning. Or ROC will do it to themselves under the DPP. To suppress voting rights they will ban any ROC citizens from returning from overseas or PRC to participate in National elections. So they go down the dark green rabbit hole thinking everything is fine. Since they are left with a voting population poorly educated on the the real conditions in the US and China. (The actually real players in The Strait Issue)


jorvis_nonof

> While Taiwan does show signs of stress, What would an economic war entail? Cutting Taiwan off (economically/diplomatically) would let US fully swoop in with aid. I don’t think it’s a wise choice. Taiwan isn't little bombed-out Berlin in 1948. The USA cannot sustain Taiwan with any amount of aid it can muster. The USA won't even help its own disaster-afflicted people at home, let alone 23 million people across the Pacific Ocean. > The landlord anecdote isn’t enough to bring about a collapse and you yourself said it’s not a prediction of Taiwan’s collapse. So I’m not sure where you’re going with this. I agree. There are far poorer places than Taiwan that aren't anywhere close to collapsing. It's not good to look at any sign of trouble and assume it means collapse. > I’ve been hearing how Taiwan will be reunified on its own. Honestly though I think China needs to do a bit of work too. Basically more influence operations on Taiwan. Pro-reunification needs to be at least a quarter of population sentiment before realistic attempts to take the island. I agree! Waiting around for things to happen isn't a good plan.


PerseusCommunist

This is what will happen to countries that adopt neoliberal capitalism. Socialism is what driving the Global South towards successes and independence. Taiwan has been economically doomed from the start!


ni-hao-r-u

While I admire this sub for maintaining its focus on China and Chinese related topics. I am surprised by some of the missing or non-posted happenings in amerikkka. Any casual look into amerikkkan news shows that the US in not in any position to do anything. Well, that is if the US actually wanted to dig itself out of the ever widening hole it is digging for itself. From political malfeasance, social unrest, worker shortage, food shortage, Covid related deaths, crumbling schools, and any other infrastructural decay that can be measured, the US has it all. It is a 1 stop shop of societal decay. You want riots, we got riots. Needless deaths, yup got those too. Broken families, lawless children, militarized police force? On Wednesday and Friday we have a buy 1 get 1 free special. I don't see how any person, let alone a supposedly competent leader can actually consider amerikkka viable any more. If amerikkka was a corporation I would suggest filing for bankruptcy, and selling off the individual assets to recoup some losses. I can't believe the countries that ally themselves with the US turn a blind eye to this. Taiwan is an embarrassment to itself at this point to think the US CAN even offer support, let alone WILL offer support. I guess there truly is a sucker born every minute.


Sharp-Turnover-4952

You forgot the most important point. That it's on the brink of financial collapse.


Quality_Fun

>"laying flat" movement i've heard about this. is this actually a very widespread and popular thing, or is it only a small thing blown out of proportions by the media ala tide pods and other similar things?


skyanvil

it actually started way earlier in Taiwan. Taiwanese youths have been doing this for years. It only caught on in mainland more recently. It's somewhat different in Taiwan vs. mainland. In mainland, they say "you have to be rich to lay flat". It means that it's mostly the off springs of well off Chinese parents who do the "laying flat", they live off of their parents' wealth. Middle class Chinese don't do "laying flat" much. In Taiwan, it's prevalent across various economic classes.


Quality_Fun

>It means that it's mostly the off springs of well off Chinese parents who do the "laying flat", they live off of their parents' wealth. Middle class Chinese don't do "laying flat" much. i see. it would be very concerning otherwise.


GreenforceFortune

>It's somewhat different in Taiwan vs. mainland. In mainland, they say "you have to be rich to lay flat". It means that it's mostly the off springs of well off Chinese parents who do the "laying flat", they live off of their parents' wealth. Middle class Chinese don't do "laying flat" much. Not quite true. I was watching a few videos in Bilibili where some middle income youths were so discouraged about their jobs and career opportunities that they just completely shut down and have been laying flat for years, forgoing all employment, education opportunities and society in general. It's a real problem and it's definitely not limited to just the upper class.


skyanvil

>I was watching a few videos in Bilibili where some middle income youths were so discouraged about their jobs and career opportunities that they just completely shut down and have been laying flat for years, forgoing all employment, education opportunities and society in general. I don't know how "middle income youths" can afford to do that, unless they live with their well off parents. In which case, I don't call them "middle income youths".


East-Deal1439

Think of it as an extension of Wuwei philosophy. Or do nothing and have no worldly desire....but taken to an extremely level for young adults.


sickof50

Sooner, vs later, the north & south will become one, and they'll need to become a Province of China to have any Peace.


fakeslimshady

Its not like US or China are great on debt either. I dont like US meddling in TW TSMC semiconductors are in such demand that 4 new plants are in the works, obviously demand for WFH tech is been through the roof


wiseowlreader

Thanks for the info. Nice to get an inside look on Taiwan.